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Lots of ways to estimate the number of cases, we have had number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations, we have had number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, cases confirmed by testing for infection, reported via CDC by county (good) and by state (bad), we have had diagnostic tests, we have had fatalities, we have had deaths in nursing homes, we have had reported deaths in nursing homes, we have had confirmed deaths in nursing homes. Its tough to get the right numbers, the CDC has gotten them wrong, and presidents propaganda arm the White House has gotten them wrong. The President seems to be just cranking them out every day.
That really makes no difference for the overall numbers, but it does make a difference when looking at the change. I count 12,393 COVID-19 deaths in the past 2 months. That leaves 146,218 deaths. The CDCs count of all COVID-19 associated deaths is 16,633. The difference is significant.
The first set of numbers relies on death certificates being reported to the CDC. The second set of numbers, compiled by medical specialists on a state by state basis, is based on the thousands of actual deaths. The CDCs numbers were generated in the weeks after our last COVID-19 related death in New York City, which was reported on April 12th. That didnt happen in the last month. Yet youll find the CDCs number of COVID-19 associated deaths continues to go up every day.
Its possible that the CDC would report many more than 12,000 COVID-19 deaths in the last week (assuming the information from NY right now is comparable to the information from NY when the last death was reported). Its even possible that the NYS Department of Health would report far fewer than 12,000 COVID-19 deaths in the last two months. Its possible the total number of COVID-19 related deaths in New York State is higher than the 56,000 reported by the NYS DHSS (assuming that cases can be estimated by undercounting of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes). Its possible that the last 2 months has seen a significant increase in COVID-19 deaths in New York. Its possible that this increase is much less than the previous 2 months. Or it could be even less than the previous 2 months, or more. The point is that were doing much more testing for COVID-19 than in previous weeks, and all testing results are being reported by the NYS DHSS (or some other agency) every day.
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